Saturday, October 10, 2009

This blog is currently on a long break


Obviously, given the date of the last post on this blog before this one, you can tell that this blog is taking a break, a hiatus, or whatever you want to call it. But "No Donkeys Allowed" will return, when I have the time and inspiration to write something. I refuse to just post something random or trivial, as that is worse than posting nothing at all for months.


My wife and I had a baby a few months ago and I have no free time at all. Writing about poker is just not on the top of my list of priorities right now, although I hope that some day it can be. I have had some ideas, and have even written some things, but nothing worth posting. Nor is it meaningful, in my opinion, to post very short blurbs that only generally sum up a poker topic, or that give a quick piece of advice without providing examples or details related to the theory behind it. Basically, I prefer longer, deeper articles.


So don't bother checking this blog for a few months more, I guess. Thanks for checking in, though! Feel free to continue to post comments to old articles.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

It’s time to take a break from grinding (or from your day job) to visit a few great poker sites!

Check out this funny (or is it true?) Melted Felt news article about Obama, poker and the economy!


Check out Pokeratti and Wicked Chops Poker for the latest poker news and gossip.


Check out Pocket Fives, Bluff magazine and PokerListings for online poker news and info.


Check out the F Train and Tao of Poker blogs for poker news and commentary from their unique perspectives.


Read this article by Phil Galfond about his “G Bucks” concept, which is basically a way of thinking about your poker decisions based on long term expected value, not short term variance; actually, Galfond gets much deeper than that into how he approaches a hand and you have to read the article to understand his deep thoughts.


Read this helpful thread (written over a year ago but I just recently found it) by frequent 2+2 poster Pokey, who explains why you should never play “weak-tight,” and why you may be playing weak-tight even if you think you are not.


Read Ed Miller’s helpful and intriguing post about the “Stages of a TAG,” i.e. the learning process that a typical tight-aggressive player goes through, from total beginner to expert pro player.


Watch High Stakes Poker Season 5 (2009) episodes via YouTube.


Finally, watch this video of Phil Hellmuth making an amazing read and all-in call at MatchRoomPoker.com.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Ten habits of losing poker players - and why these habits prevent many players from winning in the long term

The list below is not a “Top 10” list. Nor is it put together in any particular order. It is just a broad sampling of ten examples of mistakes that we should avoid making in poker. Obviously, there are hundreds of things that could go on this list, but these ten things that come to my mind illustrate the wide breadth of different problems that define how losing players play – to help us better players continue to recognize the holes in our own games and to keep on filling those holes. Very likely, I will compile another list of ten more losing player mistakes, and repeat several times in the future, as there is always so much more to learn in poker, so many revelations about mistakes that we have been making for years without realizing it, so many leaks to plug, no matter what level of poker success we achieve.

1. Losing players often show their cards, when they don’t have to, surrendering critical information to their opponents about how they play and how they think.

It is bad enough to do this after you bluff people out of a pot, or when you make a bad call, or when you get called while bluffing on the river (in which case you should try to indicate that you surrender, and muck without showing). But it is especially bad to show your opponents that you are making a tight fold, because that just tells your opponents that they can easily bluff you, and also that they should play looser against you, because even if they don’t hit a big hand with their garbage hole cards, they will still have a good chance of outplaying you after the flop. Making a face up fold with a good hand is a bad idea. It doesn’t impress anyone (and impressing people shouldn’t be your purpose at the poker table); nor does it make your opponents respect your game. Rather, it simply tells them that you are super tight and that they can take advantage of your tightness. So when you make a hard, smart fold (which is what you often must do as a good player), keep it to yourself and just smile inside, knowing that you did the right thing.

2. Losing players often talk too much, giving away the strength of their hands.

In my experience, a player who says something cockily, or jokingly, or mockingly, in the middle of a hand, very often has a medium-strength hand. A player sitting on a particularly strong or weak hand will not usually engage in much conversation, because he doesn’t want to tip off his opponents to the fact that he is either very comfortable in the hand, or uncomfortable. But players with middle strength hands (such as top pair with a middle kicker), will not know where they stand and will often try to illicit information by asking questions, or by saying provocative or strange things. They think that they are being cute or deceptive, but they are really just revealing the weakness of their cards. Any time that you say something during a hand that you don’t need to say, you are just telegraphing to an intelligent opponent the fact that you are not entirely comfortable with your hand and that you are looking for some indication of how to play it. Your opponent will often take the very next opportunity, after you open your big mouth, to cram his chips down your throat and force you to fold.

3. Losing players often overvalue or overplay hands that are not likely enough to win, given how much money must be committed to the pot to reach a showdown.

Many players spew off their chips consistently by engaging in wishful thinking, hoping for cards to improve their marginal hands when such help is not likely to come, or hoping that their opponents’ hands are even weaker than their own, when all evidence is to the contrary. For instance, a mere unsuited AK pre-flop is the most-often overplayed and misplayed hand in hold em. Very often, you will be beat by somebody else after the flop, so why over-commit yourself pre-flop, putting in so much money that you won’t be able to get away from the hand, should you hit some piece of the flop. Likewise, after the flop, a mere top pair, even with the best kicker, is vulnerable to an over-pair, two pair, etc. Just as with AK, if you fail to exercise pot control with any one pair hand you are bound to get destroyed by somebody with a less obvious, bigger hand. The surest way to lose your stack in any poker game is to over-commit yourself to a pot with a hand that is not likely to win.

4. Losing players often fail to give their opponent credit for a strong hand when the opponent’s betting suggests that he likely does have a strong hand.

You have to be able to get away from your hand when it is obvious that your opponent probably has you beat. It is especially clear that your opponent may have you beat when your own betting has suggested that you had a certain strength hand and yet your opponent then has raised into a dangerous board. You need to realize that your opponent would not usually bet into an obviously dangerous situation unless he had a pretty solid hand. So when your opponent shows strength with a big raise or a flat call of a large amount, you should recognize that he likely has a hand that is at least as good as the type of hand that you yourself have represented through your betting pattern. To start with the opposite assumption – that he is bluffing, or on a semi-bluff draw, or has a hand much weaker than yours – is a sure way to donk off your chips in a hurry.

Of course, you also don’t want to play “weak tight” poker, i.e. so tight that you fail to make moves that would be profitable for you in the long run. Thus, the key is to know from experience and sound judgment whether a certain play in a certain situation would be profitable over the long term (i.e. has positive expected value, or is “plus-EV”), and then also to have the discipline to make that correct plus-EV play.

5. Losing players often play a very predictable, simple style that makes it easy for their opponents to figure out their range of hands and play accordingly against them.

It is especially dangerous to play a tight style all of the time. Once your opponents peg you as a rock who only plays “ABC,” they will take every available opportunity to bluff you out of pots, except for the few times that you actually raise big – because then they know that you have a monster hand. Instead, it is necessary to mix up your play to mislead your opponents. If you fail to do this, good players will be able to follow your tracks like a wolf tracks prey. Your limited range of hands will be obvious to them unless you throw them off the trail with a little subtle deception. Every few orbits, play a bit looser or a bit more aggressive than you generally play, as this allows you to play in more pots, to steal more pots, and, most importantly, to keep your opponents guessing as to how you play.

6. Losing players often fail to bet or raise enough, letting opponents stay in with garbage hands or draws for free or very cheap.

Before the flop, when you have a good enough hand to make a raise, you have to raise enough to protect your hand against floaters, i.e. those loose aggressive players who will call a relatively small pre-flop raise with any two random cards like 7-3 off-suit, with the intention of either outplaying you after the flop or catching a miracle hand and blind-siding you for all of your chips. Therefore, if you are going to raise pre-flop, you have to make sure that you always raise enough to get most garbage hands to fold, by cutting down on their implied odds so much that they can’t justify calling. In a $2-5 NLHE game, for instance, if you are going to raise pre-flop, it makes sense to make it at least $20 – maybe $25, $30, or even more. In $5-10, I would make it at least $40 always. What is the point of a raise if it is not a real raise? In $1-2, where the amount of the blinds is basically nothing, I always raise to at least $15 – maybe more if playing against super-loose aggressive types who will call $15 with trash hands just to gamble. To raise any less is simply asking for a floater to play with you and then stun you later on by catching a well-hidden two pair or straight.

Likewise, losing players often let opponents stay in cheap after the flop, then, after an opponent catches a card that gives them the best hand on the turn or river, losing players often pay off those opponents with bad calls for large amounts. This is a double mistake. The worst thing that you can do in poker is to let your opponent catch up to you, by not betting enough, and then pay him off with a large call.

7. Losing players often bet or raise on the river in NLHE, in situations when there is little or no value in doing so.

You should not bet or raise on the river if you probably would only be called by a hand that beats you. For example, if you reach the river and have a mediocre hand like top pair with a 9 kicker, with three cards to a straight on the board, you really can’t be too excited about it. If you make a bet and get called, your opponent likely will turn over a better hand. He likely would not call you with a hand that you could beat like top pair with an 8 or lower kicker, no matter how aggressive your table image has been. Therefore, there is very little value in betting. You will either get your opponent to fold the worst hand, which is worth nothing extra to you, or you will be giving your money to your opponent for no reason. Of course, a lot of money can be made with a thin value bet on the river if your opponent actually calls you with a losing hand. Such a thin value bet should only be made if there is a great enough chance that the particular opponent or opponents you are facing would call you with a hand that you beat. But this prospect must be weighed against the prospect of an opponent with a hand that beats you calling or raising you. Whether there is any value in betting the river will depend on your opponents’ tendencies, as well as the board’s texture, how the hand was played from pre-flop to river, whether a bluff is necessary to get your opponent to lay down a slightly better hand, and whether a blocker bet is necessary to prevent your opponent from bluffing.

8. Losing players often act impulsively, without discipline.

Whenever you get any sense during a hand that you are in danger of overplaying it, or misplaying it, stop and think about everything that has happened, especially your opponents’ betting patterns in the hand and their tendencies generally. If you get the sense that this will be one of those big losing hands that you will remember for a long time, or that you are about to make a big mistake, stop yourself for a moment and play the hand cautiously. If you simply think before you act and have the discipline to make a big lay down, or to refrain from betting or bluffing when it probably will not be profitable to do so, you can minimize what you lose, when you happen to lose, and thereby increase what you win in the long term.

9. Losing players fail to make decisions that have positive expected value.

My definition of a “weak tight” player is one who plays so excessively tight, for fear of losing money in the short run, that he fails to make moves that would have long term positive expected value for him, and thereby costs himself money in the long run. A “strong” (or good) player, in my mind, usually will make whatever move will be profitable for him in the long run, i.e. that which has positive expected value, and a strong player is not afraid to lose money in the short run. This concept can apply to any type of action you can take in poker, including betting for value, betting to block your opponent from betting, raising, checking, check-raising, calling with a draw, calling with a made hand, bluffing, semi-bluffing, making a tough fold, etc. For example, if you have AQ of hearts and the flop comes 943 with two hearts, you have to know that you are actually the favorite against any one pair hand except QQ, KK or AA. So unless you have some reason to believe that one of your opponents has one of those premium pocket pairs, or has flopped a set or two pair, you should confidently bet or raise on the flop for value. Another example is failing to make a call or a value bet on the river with a solid hand like two pair just because there is a possible flush on the board. Unless your opponent played the hand in such a way that you should believe he has such a hand, you should not necessarily conclude that he does.

Naturally, in order to do what is “plus-EV,” one needs to first know why a certain move is or is not plus-EV. That is, he must have a great deal of poker knowledge, especially as to the mathematics related to draws, as well as the ability to read opponents’ hand ranges based on their betting patterns in various situations. But much more important than this knowledge is having the confidence to put your money at risk based upon that knowledge. Of course, some people will never learn to make the plus-EV move, no matter how many years they play – and lose – because their innate “weak tight” poker personality won’t let them grow. These are the same people who are afraid to cross the street because there is one car coming, even though it is moving slowly and is 100 yards from the intersection.

10. Losing players often fail to see the holes in their game and make no effort to fill those holes through study, reflection and self analysis.

Many varieties of mistakes and shortcomings define the play of losing players. Some people are way too loose, while others are way too tight, or passive, or aggressive. Some people get overconfident when they are winning and proceed to play like idiots and donk off everything they won and a lot more. Some people are bad at pre-flop decision making, while others stink after the flop. Believe me, we ALL have our weaknesses – even the successful professional or semi-professional players among us – and those who deny to themselves that they have leaks in certain areas of their play are doomed to continue leaking from the same holes forever.


[Please post your own thoughts about these or other habits of losing players in the comments section below. The purpose of this website is to allow serious players to share insights, ideas and information, to help each other out – so please post your own thoughts any time in the comments.]

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Don’t be an actor at the poker table: A few observations about tells

The place for actors is on the stage or screen, not in a poker game.

Bad players often reveal the strength or weakness of their hands by trying to project an appearance that they have a strong hand when they actually have a weak hand, or vice versa. Players who try to act or pretend typically think that they are being clever, but they are actually just revealing their inexperience to the better players at the table.

One of the most common examples of acting weak when actually strong is when a player suddenly looks away from the table, to try to look disinterested in the cards just dealt, though he has actually just hit a big hand. Another example is when a player curls his lip into the side of his mouth in order to feign discomfort, worry or disappointment. Likewise, when a player winces his eyes, as if to convey confusion or distaste, typically he is doing this because he wants to pretend that he doesn’t know what he’s doing or that he hates his hand.

One of the most common examples of acting strong when actually weak is when a player stares his opponent down, to try to look intimidating. Another example of feigned strength occurs when a player reaches for chips when his opponent is about to make a bet, to try to make his opponent think that he will call any amount. Likewise, when a player makes a bet or raise by slamming chips down onto the felt with a lot of force, as if to convey that his opponents shouldn’t mess with him because he is confident in his hand, typically he is doing this because he is not actually very confident.

There are thousands of possible facial expressions or other tells that an opponent could show you – intentionally or unintentionally – during a hand. Indeed, there are as many different potential mannerisms as there are muscles in the human face and body, and every distinct muscle movement could mean something different. So whenever you see something new, that you have never before had to interpret, simply ask yourself whether the thing that you saw your opponent do was something that a person ordinarily could control and prevent, i.e. something that is probably not just a subconscious reflex or an uncontrollable tic. If you determine that the mannerism or expression that you saw was something that a person could usually control – and of which a person usually would be aware he is doing – then, most of the time, you can assume that he did it intentionally, in order to try to deceive you by acting strong though actually weak, or acting act weak though actually strong.

But if you determine that a tell that you have just seen in an opponent was not the result of acting, and was merely a subconscious behavior of which he was unaware, you should assume that signs of confidence or comfort indicate a strong hand, while signs of worry or nervousness indicate a weak hand. Very often, movements of the body, arms or hands are reflexive, subconscious movements. Most such body language that you see should be trusted as a reliable, “true” tell.

Examples of subconscious behaviors by weak or bluffing players include squirming around in one’s chair out of nervousness after making a big bet, nervously stacking or fiddling with chips after making a big bet, or leaning forward in one’s chair, as if desperately hoping to draw a much-needed card.

Examples of subconscious behaviors by players with strong hands include leaning back comfortably in one’s chair after betting, sitting up suddenly when a good card is dealt, or looking down at one’s own chips when a good card is dealt, as if thinking “how much can I bet now?” Another sign of a strong hand is when a player’s fingers or hands seem to shake uncontrollably as he places a bet, due to the excitement and anticipation of winning a big pot. Likewise, if your opponent seems to swallow hard, or if the pulse in his neck seems to escalate at the moment when a new card is dealt, he probably caught a big card that helped him. He wouldn’t likely have the same involuntary physical reaction if he saw a card dealt that didn’t help his hand, would he? By contrast, if you see your opponent swallow hard after he has made a big bet, more often than not this is a sign of weakness. The timing of the tell within the hand can provide a lot of information about what the tell means.

But unlike movements of the body or hands, etc., most movements of an opponent’s lips, mouth, cheeks, forehead, or other parts of his face – parts which are usually controlled by him, and which would probably only move, during a poker hand, if he wants them to move – typically occur as a result of acting. Such acting tells should almost never be trusted as genuine, even if they appear to be very subtle or small. Naturally, an actor would try to make his faked expressions seem subtle or small, in order to make you think that they are genuine, real reactions, not pretending. Poker players who act tend to act with their faces (and their words too – which could be the subject of a whole, separate article), but not as often with the rest of the body.

Remember that almost anything your opponent does with his face is done intentionally and for the purpose of deceiving you. Think about it: if a person would normally be aware of a certain muscle in his face and be able to control it, and you see some movement there, it is probably the result of his attempt to fool you – even if he only had a second or less in which to decide to be an actor in a certain situation. Typically, actors at the poker table do their acting within a mere second or two of when a critical event occurs, such as a scare card being dealt or a big bet being made. Indeed, actors are more likely to act within such a short time after a critical event than they are to act after having a bit of time to think about it, because the acting itself is usually an automatic response. That is, actors in poker can’t stop themselves from reacting to a critical event; their instinctive reaction is to try to fool you by pretending that they hate their hand when they really love it, or that they love it when they actually hate it.

Don’t fool yourself into thinking that what you saw an opponent do was a true, subconscious tell, when it was actually acting. When in doubt, assume that any facial expression, small or large, is acting, not subconscious. A tell usually is acting if it is something that a normal person would be able to control and be aware of himself doing. For instance, a normal person can stop himself from curling his lip into the side of his mouth as if to look disappointed or concerned, and a normal person knows when he has revealed such a facial expression. In other words, people can feel their own faces and control all parts of their faces. Only a total beginner who has just learned the rules of poker would allow himself to reveal such a plain and genuine human expression when his opponents obviously can see him (unlike in online poker, of course). So unless your opponent is an absolute novice to live poker (and you would almost never encounter such a person when playing for real money, outside of a home game), you must assume most of the time that a facial tell you see is an acting tell and not a subconscious or true tell.

Of course, regarding your own potential tells, the best way to avoid telegraphing the strength or weakness of your hand to your opponents is to refrain from “acting” at all. Also, don’t overthink the situation and try to trick your opponent through “reverse psychology” or something stupid like that. That is, don’t try to act weak when you are actually weak, or strong when actually strong, in order to confuse an opponent that you know is a good player familiar with tells. If you try to create such a “fake tell,” your attempt at being clever will almost always backfire in your face.

After you have made a large bet and are waiting for your opponent to decide whether to call, raise or fold, rather than trying to “act” at all, it is usually best to simply sit there, looking down at the felt or straight ahead (though not directly at your opponent), breathing normally. When your opponent is staring at you, desperately trying to get a read on how comfortable or confident you feel, just don’t think about the hand that you are holding. Instead, think about football, or sex, or the household chores you have been meaning to do – or, if you are a woman, think about shopping, romance, or the household chores you have been nagging your husband or boyfriend to do. Just think about anything other than the hand that you are now playing or the fact that are bluffing, or semi-bluffing, of not bluffing at all.

When you are waiting for your opponent to decide what to do after you make a big bet, if you simply don’t think about the hand you shouldn’t become nervous or give off any noticeable tells. Allow yourself to become a relaxed, poker playing machine. Imagine that you are a surgeon at the poker table, always with a steady hand as you operate, never allowing emotion to interfere with your careful execution of the task at hand. Enjoy just being relaxed. Detach yourself from the situation, like a neutral observer floating above the table, looking down at the game, not concerned with the outcome.

If you are bluffing, don’t worry about having your bluff called. If he calls, he calls; whatever will be will be, etc. You have already made your bet and can’t take it back. So don’t give into the temptation to try to “act” your way out of the situation. It won’t usually work and will only increase the chances that your opponent will detect the weakness of your hand.


[*Please feel free to post, in the comments below, your own insights about tells or about specific tells to look for in opponents and to avoid exhibiting in your own face, body, etc. The purpose of this website is to allow serious players to share insights, ideas and information, to help each other out – so please post your own thoughts any time in the comments.]